Data from two volumes of the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) has generated new updates on the exhibition

By Felipe Floriano*

3.6 billion people are already suffering from the consequences of climate changes around the world, mainly the most vulnerable populations and ecosystems. The warning was given by the IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes, in the second volume of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Launched in February of this year, about 270 survey takers from nearly 70 countries participated in the preparation of the document that still states that the planet is likely to reach or exceed the 1.5°C warming proposed by the Paris Agreement in the next two decades. 

It's not just that. In April, the IPCC also released the third and final volume before the synthesis report, which will be released in September and consolidates information from all studies produced throughout the AR6 cycle. Bringing together more than 260 survey takers from 65 countries, the study warned that if global governance maintains current public climate policies, the Earth will warm 3.2°C by the end of the century, more than double the limit of the Paris Agreement. To face this scenario, it is necessary that the financial resources destined to reduce emissions be six times greater than it is today. And considering the costs of these adaptation measures, cutting emissions does not significantly impact global GDP. The world's GDP is expected to double by 2050, while mitigations to be adopted between now and 2025 would produce a decrease from 0.04 to 0.09 percentage points per year in global wealth.

"The Observatory of Tomorrow's ongoing survey based on reports released by the IPCC provides visitors to the Museum of Tomorrow with the most up-to-date information on the effects of climate changes that are already being experienced across the planet, as well as actions to tackle them, either through mitigation or adaptation to their effects", explains Davi Bonela, the museum's scientific development manager. "With the new IPCC reports, the museum has already made more than 60 updates to its Long-Term Exhibition over the last six months on what is one of the biggest global challenges of our time," he concludes. The Observatory of Tomorrow is presented by Shell.

Increase in the average temperature of the planet already causes species extinction

In addition, according to the AR6 report, climate changes have already caused losses of endemic species, increased disease, mass mortality events of plants and animals, ecosystem restructuring, increased areas burned by forest fires, and declines in key ecosystem services. This is causing economic losses and changing cultural practices and recreational activities around the world.

Furthermore, climate changes are negatively affecting the physical and mental health of people all over the planet. The occurrence of climate-related food and water-borne diseases is steadily increasing, as is the incidence of vector-borne diseases, for example. Cardiovascular and respiratory problems have also been associated with increased exposure to smoke from forest fires. In addition, some mental health challenges, trauma resulting from weather events, and loss of livelihoods and culture are related to rising temperatures. Health services, which are meant to protect individuals from these effects, are being disrupted by extreme events such as flooding. If humanity follows this path, more than 9 million climate-related deaths per year are projected by the end of the century under a scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions. 

Half of CO2 emissions occurred in the last 30 years and continue to rise

According to the report, from the Industrial Revolution in 1750 until today, humanity has already emitted 2.4 trillion tons of CO2, with 48% of these emissions going into the air since 1990 and 17% being released into the air in the last decade alone. There is a huge regional and social gap in emissions: the world's poorest countries and island nations, the main victims of climate impacts, together contributed less than 4% of the world's emissions in 2019.

For humanity to be able to stabilize at least 50% of global warming at the 1.5°C threshold recommended by the Paris Agreement, global greenhouse gas emissions need to peak between 2020 and 2025 and fall by 43% by 2030. However, in 2019, for example, the world's greenhouse gas emissions were 59 billion tons, a figure 12% higher than in 2010 and 54% higher than in 1990.

Brazil in the IPCC report

The impact of climate change is also and will continue to be felt in Brazil. According to the IPCC report, the incidence of extreme droughts in the Amazon is expected to increase the costs of treating respiratory diseases by 20% to 50%, and the incidence of malaria by 5% to 10% by 2030, implying a high cost of living, as people will be prevented from realizing their livelihoods. These extreme droughts are also expected to accelerate and intensify the migration of traditional communities and indigenous people to urban centers, where their quality of life is expected to decline as they will occupy vulnerable areas.

National biodiversity is also seriously threatened. In the Brazilian Amazon, for example, deforestation to clear farmland is the main cause of the decrease in the number of trees, reducing forest cover by an average of 13,900 km² per year between 1988 and 2020.

However, the severe effects of climate changes in Brazil can still be reduced, according to future choices. In 2014, indigenous territories and other environmental-protected areas accounted for the equivalent of 58.5% of all carbon stored in the Brazilian Amazon and had the lowest rate of deforestation (2.1%) and incidence of fires, evidencing the effectiveness of traditional knowledge in safeguarding important ecosystem services. Indigenous territories are estimated to contribute at least US$5 billion per year to the global economy through food and energy production, greenhouse gas emissions offsets, and climate regulation and stability. 
 

By Felipe Floriano, Scientific Development Analyst at the Museum of Tomorrow.